Organic CTR Curve
The organic CTR curve describes how click-through rate falls as ranking position drops. Position one typically earns several times the clicks of position five, and page two earns almost none. The exact figures vary by query type and SERP layout.
Why it matters for your rankings
The curve explains why the gap between position three and position one is worth far more than the gap between fifteen and thirteen, even though both are two places.
It also sets realistic expectations for forecasting. Multiplying search volume by an average CTR produces wildly optimistic traffic estimates, because modern results pages push organic listings down behind ads, AI overviews, snippets and local packs. On many commercial queries the first organic result now sits below the fold entirely. The practical use is prioritisation: pages ranking four to eight are where small ranking gains produce the largest traffic changes, which is usually where effort should go first.
How to check it on your site
Measure your own curve
Export Search Console data by position band and calculate actual CTR at each. Your curve is more useful than any published average.
Find pages just below the fold
Positions four to ten offer the biggest CTR gains per place improved. Prioritise them over positions twenty and beyond.
Account for SERP features
Check whether an AI overview, snippet or ad block sits above the organic results for your target queries.
Forecast conservatively
Use your measured CTR rather than industry averages when projecting traffic from a ranking improvement.